Electrifying Indian Road Transport: Equivalent Solar Need

Came across an interesting statistics on number of  vehicle sales in 2015 in India and started crunching numbers as to how this is going to increase oil consumption in India and how much more electricity would be needed if all the vehicles were electrified. India imports most of the oil and economy hurts when oil prices are high. Solar energy however is domestically produced and based on recent bids, solar electricity prices are getting down to Rs 3.5 (0.05 cents)/KWhr in short timevehiclessales_petrol

The interesting result is that we would need just 15 GW of solar panels with 5 hrs/day average sunlight to electrify all the new vehicle sales of 2015. India already has plans to install 100GW of solar power by 2022. The other interesting thing is that the Rupees you spend per km is less in case of electrified transport. If oil prices rise further (only India and China with their demand can jack up prices), and renewable electricity prices continue to drop, the difference will only get bigger.  The oil consumption increase per day represents an oil expense increase of 9 MM$/day (@60$/bbl) or 3.3 Billion$ per year. Assuming 20000 km/yr for cars and motorcycles and 100000 km/yr for trucks, electrified transport will save 14 billion $/yr transportation costs + foreign currency for importing oil. Why can’t these future savings be monetized to set up electric mobility infrastructure?

The reduced operating costs should be used to pay for the current higher cost of electrified transport (batteries, charging stations etc). However, with time these costs will fall if India decides to produce batteries locally. Electrifying transport is the only sustainable way, or one has to rely on vagaries of the oil prices. Imagine electricity infrastructure with all electric vehicles plugged in the grid 24/7 like mobiles or data servers and  stabilizing the grid by charging when it suited grid balancing. While electrifying motorcycles and cars is proven technology, electrification of commercial vehicles stand for the major share of oil consumption and have the largest cost decrease per kilometer. If solar electricity prices continue to fall, hydrogen fuel cell range extenders to electrify commercial vehicles is a way to go.

The motorcyle and car electrification has another incentive through reduced pollution in the densely populated Indian cities. A solution is needed before people in these cities start going around with masks like in Star Wars for air pollution, not to mention the noise pollution.

The table below shows the size of battery capacity to electrify all new sales of vehicles in India.

battery-production_india

Roughly twice the Gigafactory size by Tesla (full size in 2020), which is not an outrageous figure. 2 Gigafactories in India to electrify all transport. India has many public sector undertakings from oil to coal to steel. Why not one in modern needs: lithium battery production, solar panel production (not just assembly). Government gives cheap loans to start a public undertaking with clear goal of using best technology to drive battery prices down and deliver a profit based public company.

 

CO2 fact

If India and China alone begin to emit as much CO2 per capita as USA, CO2 emissions will increase by 24kt (more than 50% increase). Fossil fuels stand for 91% of manmade CO2 emission. Oil consumption through transportation stands for some 30% of CO2 emission. Imagine the oil price if demand in India and China increases to same per capita levels as in US. Is there enough oil? And what are the consequences to pollution in cities and environment in general? India and China are late to the mobility game and with densely populated cities as a starting point, have to find own way to address mobility challenges. China is already near top of electric vehicle sales list.

co2_world

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India: Energy benchmarks

From a pure physics viewpoint, each person in a nation can be considered a machine of certain power. If the nation is mainly involved in manual labour, as is with countries with primitive agriculture as the main component of the gross domestic product, the per capita work and therefore income will be limited. A well-fed labourer can output at about 75 watt over an 8 hour shift. This gives an energy output of 75*8 = 600 watt-hr. A more advanced agricultural society may employ domesticated animals to augment the energy use and agricultural waste, but this does not significantly alter the energy consumption until one starts employing electricity and energy for increased mobility of humans and goods.

In a capitalist world however, one has to evaluate the profitability of the work, that is the value of the work produced versus energy used. Consider 2 scenarios. There is a road construction project somewhere in India. A group of 100 people are involved in each scenario. One uses just manual labour, while the other uses a couple of earth moving machines which are usually rated to 30kW (same as 400 well-fed labourers + more). Clearly the group with earth moving equipment will be able to construct more kilometres of road within the same time period. Even if we normalize the kilometres of road constructed per energy used, one will find the group with earth moving equipment will have more kilometres (and better quality) of road constructed per watt-hr of energy used. This is also the general route of development of society. As discussed earlier, development is associated with more use of energy, but also efficiency increases, so one produces more work for a given use of energy. On a national level, the GDP/primary energy ratio is a good indicator of energy effectivity of a nation. See for example this comparison of US and China energy use. While in China, the metric tons CO2 increased fourfold between 1990 and 2010, the metric tons per GDP fell almost 4 times, indicating the energy being put to good use. The energy use has a multiplying effect on the work a given nations population can output. Providing abundant and cheap energy is therefore a must for development of a nation. Long term energy security is key for ensuring sustained economic growth.

One can argue, that examples above are not comparable. How did one group get access to 100 skilled workers who can drive the earth moving machines and where did they have capital to rent the earth moving equipment.

That is the collective choice of the society and takes time to reach that level and is generally the industrialization of society. In such a society, knowledge level and technology awareness of the majority of the population (including kids) is high. There is a perpetual drive to evaluate behaviour, processes, events in the everyday life and attempt to do everyday more effective. As an example consider the long queues that appear everyday near toll booths for paying the toll in cash. India claims to be an information technology nation and has millions who have travelled and worked in countries where toll-bricks in cars are everyday standard. Despite this, it takes many years before one solves such a simple problem which would have made things more effective. In industrialized society, there is more personal freedom, more faith in own abilities than in externalities such as destiny, godly interference etc. The society has a healthy attitude towards finding why things are done the way they are and how can they be done better instead of an all-pervasive love/obligation to continue to keep the things the way they have been for thousands of years.

Benchmarking India against comparable nations and peers is one way to estimate how far India has come and how far one has left in terms of industrialization. This allows a healthy discussion on an action plan and priorities. In a healthy nation, the media has a responsibility to conduct such benchmarks every now and then to guide development.

Energy is the key input and is the subject of benchmarking against US and China in this case. A water and food benchmark ought to be next.

India electricity production

india2014_generation

Realizing China’s population being 5 times that of USA, China energy has still potential to grow 3-4 fold. India on the other hand, needs to increase its electricity generation 5 fold to come to parity with China today or keep on comparing itself to Pakistan and Bangladesh to feel good.

india_growth_power

If India has ambitions of copying the fast growth rate of China, the growth rate in power generation is non-negotiable. It does not help to promise high national growth rates, and continue the slow growth of rate seen in power sector. Between 2000 and 2013, India managed a doubling of the electricity generation, averaging some 5.4% compound growth which is commendable, but below that other comparable nations are able to manage. Lack of power and infrastructure (which is not discussed here) is not exactly a courtship sign for setting up new industries or expansion of existing industries, both of which need power and cannot be just powered by an increased human labour associated with increased population. To improve the per capita energy use benchmark, the growth in power generation has to be significantly higher than population growth.

Price of electricity and oil

A way of comparing the transportation costs are using the MPGe defined by EPA, 33.7 KWhr is equal to 1 gallon of gasoline (3.78 litre). However, while an electric vehicle can convert 80% of the battery energy to miles transported on the road, the gasoline fired vehicles normally convert about 25% to miles transported on road. So MPGe of electric cars are usually 3-4 times that of MPG of gasoline cars. Again for Indian conditions, we start with 33.7 KWhr (which costs 33.7 * 8 = 2.69 dollars) and 1 gallon of gasoline (which costs 0.97 dollars / litre * 3.78 = 3.66 dollar). The 2.69 dollars used in electric vehicle will take you 4 times as long as the 3.66 dollars in the gasoline vehicle i.e. savings of 5 – 6 dollars (~Rs 400) per 100 km for medium sized cars.

Having faith that electrification ultimately increases the overall energy efficiency, one should set all research and technology institutions (IIT’s, IISc’s etc) to have a deadline to come up with solutions for cost-effective energy storage and commercialization within a fixed time span. Use the vast local market to promote and ultimately bring down the costs of energy storage. If one can send a satellite to Mars, one should be able to expect the institutions to solve a real world and acute problem as well. The nations that win this race will ensure energy security for lowest cost. Maharastra already seems to understand this and the prime minister also seems to be well versed with the challenges as seen from visits to Tesla in recent US visit.

Crowd financing

If one considers that 100 million population in India is middle class with sufficient buying power and if each of these 100 million installs 1000 watt solar panels panels (cost ca Rs 76 000 see link, economically sensible if electricity price over Rs 5/KWhr) one can increase the power generation capacity across India, by almost 100 GW. The government has to facilitate net-metering and jack-up the grid integration efforts in the meantime. And ensure that the whole solar manufacturing chain is produced in India. Not a single Indian company appears in the top 10 solar panel manufacturers of the world. China already has 6 of the top 10 manufacturers. Trading may not be the way to go. Else once again we may miss the bus (considering the semiconductor industry) and be a nation of assemblers and not owners of technology. Let this be the goal of next Diwali gift season. With right efforts (national promotion, support schemes as in US, energy awareness initiatives) one can reach a goal of 100 million 1000 watt installations. Although world solar manufacturing capacity of about 70GW per year in 2015 may be a limiting factor. While costs may be lower for dedicated large scale PV installations, the market effect of small scale installations may be more to motivate a whole society to understand energy challenges. Dear fellow educated Indians, Just do it.

Are we humans or are we ants?

Are we humans or are we ants?

I read a bedtime story for my kid lately about a girl who was bored in her garden on a nice summer day. She then got hold of a magnifying glass and started following a group of ants who were collecting small corns of food. The story ends up with the girl pondering over if there is another living form in the universe looking at us humans with a magnifying glass, just like she is doing. And I started pondering if the living forms think we are the intelligent species we think we are when we scurry about our lives. Or will they see us some ants hunting for small drops of oil, coal and other non-renewable consumtions deep under earth when obvious choices of inexhaustible sources of energy are ignored.

One hears a lot of the impending green revolution in the media, with strong views both for and against. The goal of this little googling for information was to make an opinion for myself based on data and engineering reality checks which usually were found absent in media.

Energy usage and human progress have gone hand in hand. Figure illustrates the increasing energy usage as society moves in different phases of development.

human development , ,

Modern energy consumption is both in terms of the electricity used in households, commercial and industrial use and the energy equivalent of the hydrocarbons used in transportation. An idea of the changes happening in energy consumption and their implications can be understood by looking at the US which is based on a market society with a perpetual drive to re-invent itself through market mechanisms. It is also a high technology society where technology which seemingly may seem useless when made can become a worldwide market. Facebook, Google, internet browsers, shale oil are just some examples. Just see link to the 10 yr old interview with then 19yr old Facebook founder March Zuckerberg. Technology made to connect university friend circles has now more than a billion regular users and has defined social networking, and redefined advertising industry.

The total energy consumption of the US and development can be captured from following table.

,us energy consumption

It can be seen that while electricity consumption stands for 4.1PWh, another roughly 21.4 PWh energy is needed in terms of mainly oil and natural gas for heating and transportation purposes. What is interesting is also the trend over this short period of time. While the population is increasing, the electricity per capita is almost constant and the primary energy per capita is decreasing thanks to efficiency gains of the electricity grid and more fuel efficient transportation.

The electricity generation in US is shown in following table. The most striking observation is that in the 13 year period from 1999, the wind energy has grown 30 times (3000 %) while solar energy has grown 15 times. The question then is how much more can they grow and what is the total energy potential of these sources.

us electricity production

Wind Energy

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the contiguous United States has the potential for 10,459 GW of onshore wind power. The capacity could generate 37 petawatt-hours (PW·h) annually, an amount nine times larger than current total U.S. electricity consumption. This means if one has technology to capture and average out this intermittent source of energy, one can more than supply the total energy needs of US. The U.S. also has large wind resources in Alaska and Hawaii. In addition the US has an offshore wind energy potential of 4000 GW or 4 times current installed capacity from all sources. The U.S. Department of Energy’s 2008 report 20% Wind Energy by 2030 envisioned that wind power could supply 20% of all U.S. electricity.

Solar Energy

A 2012 report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory described technically available renewable energy resources for each state and estimated that urban utility scale photovoltaics could supply 2,232 TWh/year, rural utility scale PV 280,613 TWh/year, rooftop PV 818 TWh/year, and CSP 116,146 TWh/year, for a total of almost 400,000 TWh/year, 100 times current consumption of 3,856 TWh in 2011. Again as the wind energy, the potential is vast.

US costs

A typical household has electricity expenses of about $100/month. In addition, considering 30000 miles/yr driving with 2 cars in a family, 20 miles/gallon fueleconomy and a gasoline price of $2.30 gives $3500/yr or $300/month. So a typical household is spending about $400 per month on energy directly. Other consumptions have some energy component in them. Assuming a household income of $4000 a month gives typically 10% cost on energy. As such, an American household can easily afford a slightly higher price for energy if they have to make that choice on a personal level based on moral values like many other choices one makes. The richer the society, the easier the choice or rather obligation to choose long-term solutions.

Growing up in India, I remember coal and wood being a good source of energy in great many households during my childhood. Trains with coal based locomotives were also common. We have moved to diesel based locomotives and LNG based cooking, not because wood and coal were costly, but because they were inconvenient and produced smoke and ash which could not be easily handled. And more importantly, the moment you afford a better solution (diesel or electricity based locomotives and LNG based cooking), the society adopts it.

The green economy potential    

The energy conscious already are willing to pay a little more for the greener energy, as seen in the phenomenal increase in wind energy and solar energy production in the US in last 10 years. The political will seems to be in place to encourage this. Inspite of this phenomenal increase in wind and solar energy, hydrocarbons still stand for 66% of electricity production and almost 100% of the primary energy consumption making the share of renewables in the net energy consumption a small 4.5%.

2 key happenings in last years are perhaps the harbinger to what can happen relatively fast. Tesla cars have both the cool and the splash. Tesla’s remarkable share price growth is beaten only by its sales growth, which has enjoyed a remarkable 158% compound annual growth rate over the past three years. While that growth rate isn’t sustainable, analysts are still expecting sales to increase 55% this year and 62% in 2015. Tesla is building the $5 billion Gigafactory, the world’s largest lithium-ion manufacturing plant in Nevada, to provide sufficient batteries for 500,000 vehicles per year. In fact the Gigafactory’s planned output of 35 GWh per year is larger than the entire world’s capacity in 2013. Other major carmakers are following suit and electric cars have the potential to catch on.

How quick is the transformation and how quickly can it make a dent in the hydrocarbon consumption?

According to DOT statistics there are about 280 million vehicles in US, majority of which are cars for private transportation. The median age of cars is about 9 years and annual sales of about 6-11 million vehicles per year. With political and social commitment, a 20 – 30% penetration battery/electricity/renewable based transportation is plausible in a decade, thus significantly reducing the share of non-renawable hydrocarbons in transportation sector. Both the renewable electricity potential and the battery technology is at a takeoff point that rapid changes through game changer technologies can alter the transportation sector.

The other key happening is the launch by Tesla of home battery storage which comes in sizes of 10kWhr and cost $3000. If the 100M homes in US install 3 batteries each, we are looking at the storage capacity of 3000 Gwh which is 30% of daily US electricity production, which opens for higher penetration of renewable electricity generation and opening up for supporting electric cars. The question is how long it will take to produce 3000 GWh storage capacity. Tesla alone can produce 35GWh per year. If one assumes 3 to 4 other competitors with similar capacity plans, one is again looking at a horizon of 10 – 15 years to deliver the needed storage capacity assuming a modest year to year raise in production capacity. The response to the launch of Tesla’s home storage has been overwhelming having an order booking of 800 million dollars in just first week.

Consequences for oil production

Demand for oil from developed and environmentally focused nations can wane in next decade if current trend in US wind energy, solar energy, electric cars and battery storage become sustainable and gain momentum in rest of the developed world. US in fact may want to cash on its oil reserves and start exporting.

Economic development is often accompanied by increasing energy consumption, often with the cheapest energy source available. If battery technology, electric cars, wind and solar energy is made available to developing world, they can leapfrog over the environmentally unfriendly energy consumption increase, just as they did with mobile telephony. India, China already feature in top 5 places on installed wind and solar power.

All these factors make the assumed oil demand growth in developing nations more doubtful. Changes can happen quickly. If the cheap oil producing nations get a hint on new technologies replacing the traditional oil demand, there can be a scramble to offload cheap oil as quickly as possible, leading to the cheap oil being produced first and expensive oil can be and remain stranded.

We will need oil for many decades to come, but perhaps if USA manages to throw away the shackles of oil on its economy, oil demand will not be as aggressive as one expected based on demand growth from developing world where economic progress was associated with increased transportation based on oil.

China and India Oil consumption

Daily oil consumption in USA is about 18 million bbls/day (produces 50% and imports 50%), while that of India and China is 4 and 10 million bbls/day respectively. The daily world oil production in 2015 is 78 million bbl/day compared to about 68 million bbl/day in year 2000. Thus a population of 316 million in USA consumes 25% of world oil. If India and China developed to consume similar per capita oil consumption as USA, the world oil production has to increase by 137 million bbls/day which may be a mathematical, environmental, and sustainable impossibility. If cheap access to energy is the main motor to economic and living standard development and energy use per capita a measure of development, development of India and China and other developing nations will need extraordinary amounts of energy which non-renewable resources cannot supply. An therein lies the contradiction in oil price prognosis by IEA or OPEC which assume increasing demand by developing countries to justify stable and high oil prices.

Already, the long term plans, for example in India, as explained in the ‘Make India’ campaign, is to secure energy security through increased hybrid and electrical mobility penetration by 2020. For any descent developing nation, ambitions of development to standards of the current developed world, will need a concentrated effort to secure energy independence through non-renewable energy use.

Reflections

It is taming of energy that has led to human progress and allowed the societies which tamed energy to accumulate wealth and invest in technology development and efficiency increases which strengthened the trend of wealth accumulation. The early traders crossed oceans making best use of wind energy and started the wealth accumulation process. The use of oil and coal accelerated trade and also the wealth accumulation but perhaps at a high environmental cost. However now hopefully, part of the world population has accumulated so much wealth that they can afford to tame renewable energy.

Back to where it all started, if there is somebody in the universe looking at us humans with a magnifying glass, I am sure with they will perceive us to be smart, if not currently with the reckless burning of a non-renewable resource, but in a decade or 2 when we have tapped into the infiniteness of renewable energy universe which we are part of.